valid from 19.05.2022
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Model portfolios – Swiss focus: Pending further measures by the central banks
Although inflation rates in the USA and Europe have probably peaked, inflationary pressure remains high and is putting central banks under pressure. More and more central banks are now deciding to raise interest rates - first and foremost the US central bank Federal Reserve (Fed), which is deliberately accepting a cooling of the economy with its aggressive fight against inflation. According to statements by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB), the first interest rate step in the Eurozone could be due in July. Although inflation rates in Switzerland are still significantly lower than in other European countries, the pressure on the central bank has increased. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will therefore already have to consider a first interest rate step for its assessment of the situation on 16 June. For the SNB's credibility, an interest rate step would be appropriate, especially since the current weakness of the Swiss franc means that the justification for negative interest rates is now lacking. We therefore recommend further reducing the bond quota by underweighting Swiss bonds. We continue to adhere to the other, defensive portfolio orientation.
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