The abrupt standstill of the global economy is becoming increasingly apparent in corporate and economic data. It is also an illusion to believe that the economy will get going again at the push of a button as soon as the health crisis will have been overcome. The slump is leaving marks too deep. Despite state support, numerous bankruptcies are to be expected. The losses suffered will keep many companies busy for even longer. The rise in unemployment, in turn, will weigh on consumption.
However, the health crisis has not yet been overcome either. The coronavirus will shape the healthcare system and the global economy for months to come. Although there are growing signs in Europe that the far-reaching measures taken to prevent the further spread of the coronavirus are having an effect, there is still a long way to go. However, the focus of the coronavirus pandemic is increasingly shifting to the US, where case numbers and deaths continue to rise sharply, and to emerging markets, where the problems are only just beginning.
In countries where the disease has been successfully contained, such as China, Korea and Singapore, the risk of a new outbreak is also high. This makes it clear that even if the current wave of infection soon flattens out, there are still no signs of a "herd immunity" of the world population. Until a vaccine becomes available, governments will therefore have to resort to restrictive measures - even if these are unlikely to remain in force in the same strict form due to the massive economic consequences.